Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BCH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-21 0.004514 0.004754 0.005000 0.005273 0.005568 0.005876 0.006224
2025-09-28 0.003982 0.004321 0.004685 0.005105 0.005580 0.006103 0.006725
2025-10-05 0.003749 0.004152 0.004596 0.005127 0.005747 0.006454 0.007328
2025-10-12 0.003600 0.004053 0.004564 0.005191 0.005944 0.006830 0.007965
2025-10-19 0.003425 0.003907 0.004462 0.005155 0.006009 0.007040 0.008400
2025-10-26 0.003281 0.003785 0.004376 0.005128 0.006074 0.007244 0.008829
2025-11-02 0.003148 0.003669 0.004288 0.005089 0.006116 0.007412 0.009214
2025-11-09 0.003094 0.003643 0.004306 0.005178 0.006320 0.007794 0.009900
2025-11-16 0.002984 0.003543 0.004225 0.005136 0.006347 0.007942 0.010272
2025-11-23 0.002899 0.003469 0.004174 0.005128 0.006416 0.008143 0.010725
2025-11-30 0.002792 0.003363 0.004076 0.005051 0.006386 0.008205 0.010978
2025-12-07 0.002699 0.003271 0.003992 0.004989 0.006371 0.008284 0.011258
2025-12-14 0.002635 0.003215 0.003954 0.004987 0.006442 0.008490 0.011744
2025-12-21 0.002513 0.003081 0.003807 0.004833 0.006290 0.008365 0.011713
2025-12-28 0.002467 0.003043 0.003789 0.004853 0.006386 0.008607 0.012270
2026-01-04 0.002438 0.003029 0.003799 0.004912 0.006540 0.008942 0.012997
2026-01-11 0.002378 0.002969 0.003746 0.004879 0.006556 0.009065 0.013384
2026-01-18 0.002324 0.002915 0.003700 0.004854 0.006581 0.009203 0.013802
2026-01-25 0.002268 0.002859 0.003648 0.004818 0.006587 0.009310 0.014171
2026-02-01 0.002257 0.002862 0.003677 0.004901 0.006778 0.009720 0.015105
2026-02-08 0.002205 0.002808 0.003625 0.004862 0.006777 0.009818 0.015481
2026-02-15 0.002166 0.002770 0.003596 0.004854 0.006824 0.009996 0.016016
2026-02-22 0.002108 0.002706 0.003525 0.004783 0.006768 0.009995 0.016212